BitCoinLive for MTGOX:BTCUSD by BitcoinMedusa — TradingView

Technical: A Brief History of Payment Channels: from Satoshi to Lightning Network

Who cares about political tweets from some random country's president when payment channels are a much more interesting and are actually capable of carrying value?
So let's have a short history of various payment channel techs!

Generation 0: Satoshi's Broken nSequence Channels

Because Satoshi's Vision included payment channels, except his implementation sucked so hard we had to go fix it and added RBF as a by-product.
Originally, the plan for nSequence was that mempools would replace any transaction spending certain inputs with another transaction spending the same inputs, but only if the nSequence field of the replacement was larger.
Since 0xFFFFFFFF was the highest value that nSequence could get, this would mark a transaction as "final" and not replaceable on the mempool anymore.
In fact, this "nSequence channel" I will describe is the reason why we have this weird rule about nLockTime and nSequence. nLockTime actually only works if nSequence is not 0xFFFFFFFF i.e. final. If nSequence is 0xFFFFFFFF then nLockTime is ignored, because this if the "final" version of the transaction.
So what you'd do would be something like this:
  1. You go to a bar and promise the bartender to pay by the time the bar closes. Because this is the Bitcoin universe, time is measured in blockheight, so the closing time of the bar is indicated as some future blockheight.
  2. For your first drink, you'd make a transaction paying to the bartender for that drink, paying from some coins you have. The transaction has an nLockTime equal to the closing time of the bar, and a starting nSequence of 0. You hand over the transaction and the bartender hands you your drink.
  3. For your succeeding drink, you'd remake the same transaction, adding the payment for that drink to the transaction output that goes to the bartender (so that output keeps getting larger, by the amount of payment), and having an nSequence that is one higher than the previous one.
  4. Eventually you have to stop drinking. It comes down to one of two possibilities:
    • You drink until the bar closes. Since it is now the nLockTime indicated in the transaction, the bartender is able to broadcast the latest transaction and tells the bouncers to kick you out of the bar.
    • You wisely consider the state of your liver. So you re-sign the last transaction with a "final" nSequence of 0xFFFFFFFF i.e. the maximum possible value it can have. This allows the bartender to get his or her funds immediately (nLockTime is ignored if nSequence is 0xFFFFFFFF), so he or she tells the bouncers to let you out of the bar.
Now that of course is a payment channel. Individual payments (purchases of alcohol, so I guess buying coffee is not in scope for payment channels). Closing is done by creating a "final" transaction that is the sum of the individual payments. Sure there's no routing and channels are unidirectional and channels have a maximum lifetime but give Satoshi a break, he was also busy inventing Bitcoin at the time.
Now if you noticed I called this kind of payment channel "broken". This is because the mempool rules are not consensus rules, and cannot be validated (nothing about the mempool can be validated onchain: I sigh every time somebody proposes "let's make block size dependent on mempool size", mempool state cannot be validated by onchain data). Fullnodes can't see all of the transactions you signed, and then validate that the final one with the maximum nSequence is the one that actually is used onchain. So you can do the below:
  1. Become friends with Jihan Wu, because he owns >51% of the mining hashrate (he totally reorged Bitcoin to reverse the Binance hack right?).
  2. Slip Jihan Wu some of the more interesting drinks you're ordering as an incentive to cooperate with you. So say you end up ordering 100 drinks, you split it with Jihan Wu and give him 50 of the drinks.
  3. When the bar closes, Jihan Wu quickly calls his mining rig and tells them to mine the version of your transaction with nSequence 0. You know, that first one where you pay for only one drink.
  4. Because fullnodes cannot validate nSequence, they'll accept even the nSequence=0 version and confirm it, immutably adding you paying for a single alcoholic drink to the blockchain.
  5. The bartender, pissed at being cheated, takes out a shotgun from under the bar and shoots at you and Jihan Wu.
  6. Jihan Wu uses his mystical chi powers (actually the combined exhaust from all of his mining rigs) to slow down the shotgun pellets, making them hit you as softly as petals drifting in the wind.
  7. The bartender mutters some words, clothes ripping apart as he or she (hard to believe it could be a she but hey) turns into a bear, ready to maul you for cheating him or her of the payment for all the 100 drinks you ordered from him or her.
  8. Steely-eyed, you stand in front of the bartender-turned-bear, daring him to touch you. You've watched Revenant, you know Leonardo di Caprio could survive a bear mauling, and if some posh actor can survive that, you know you can too. You make a pose. "Drunken troll logic attack!"
  9. I think I got sidetracked here.
Lessons learned?

Spilman Channels

Incentive-compatible time-limited unidirectional channel; or, Satoshi's Vision, Fixed (if transaction malleability hadn't been a problem, that is).
Now, we know the bartender will turn into a bear and maul you if you try to cheat the payment channel, and now that we've revealed you're good friends with Jihan Wu, the bartender will no longer accept a payment channel scheme that lets one you cooperate with a miner to cheat the bartender.
Fortunately, Jeremy Spilman proposed a better way that would not let you cheat the bartender.
First, you and the bartender perform this ritual:
  1. You get some funds and create a transaction that pays to a 2-of-2 multisig between you and the bartender. You don't broadcast this yet: you just sign it and get its txid.
  2. You create another transaction that spends the above transaction. This transaction (the "backoff") has an nLockTime equal to the closing time of the bar, plus one block. You sign it and give this backoff transaction (but not the above transaction) to the bartender.
  3. The bartender signs the backoff and gives it back to you. It is now valid since it's spending a 2-of-2 of you and the bartender, and both of you have signed the backoff transaction.
  4. Now you broadcast the first transaction onchain. You and the bartender wait for it to be deeply confirmed, then you can start ordering.
The above is probably vaguely familiar to LN users. It's the funding process of payment channels! The first transaction, the one that pays to a 2-of-2 multisig, is the funding transaction that backs the payment channel funds.
So now you start ordering in this way:
  1. For your first drink, you create a transaction spending the funding transaction output and sending the price of the drink to the bartender, with the rest returning to you.
  2. You sign the transaction and pass it to the bartender, who serves your first drink.
  3. For your succeeding drinks, you recreate the same transaction, adding the price of the new drink to the sum that goes to the bartender and reducing the money returned to you. You sign the transaction and give it to the bartender, who serves you your next drink.
  4. At the end:
    • If the bar closing time is reached, the bartender signs the latest transaction, completing the needed 2-of-2 signatures and broadcasting this to the Bitcoin network. Since the backoff transaction is the closing time + 1, it can't get used at closing time.
    • If you decide you want to leave early because your liver is crying, you just tell the bartender to go ahead and close the channel (which the bartender can do at any time by just signing and broadcasting the latest transaction: the bartender won't do that because he or she is hoping you'll stay and drink more).
    • If you ended up just hanging around the bar and never ordering, then at closing time + 1 you broadcast the backoff transaction and get your funds back in full.
Now, even if you pass 50 drinks to Jihan Wu, you can't give him the first transaction (the one which pays for only one drink) and ask him to mine it: it's spending a 2-of-2 and the copy you have only contains your own signature. You need the bartender's signature to make it valid, but he or she sure as hell isn't going to cooperate in something that would lose him or her money, so a signature from the bartender validating old state where he or she gets paid less isn't going to happen.
So, problem solved, right? Right? Okay, let's try it. So you get your funds, put them in a funding tx, get the backoff tx, confirm the funding tx...
Once the funding transaction confirms deeply, the bartender laughs uproariously. He or she summons the bouncers, who surround you menacingly.
"I'm refusing service to you," the bartender says.
"Fine," you say. "I was leaving anyway;" You smirk. "I'll get back my money with the backoff transaction, and posting about your poor service on reddit so you get negative karma, so there!"
"Not so fast," the bartender says. His or her voice chills your bones. It looks like your exploitation of the Satoshi nSequence payment channel is still fresh in his or her mind. "Look at the txid of the funding transaction that got confirmed."
"What about it?" you ask nonchalantly, as you flip open your desktop computer and open a reputable blockchain explorer.
What you see shocks you.
"What the --- the txid is different! You--- you changed my signature?? But how? I put the only copy of my private key in a sealed envelope in a cast-iron box inside a safe buried in the Gobi desert protected by a clan of nomads who have dedicated their lives and their childrens' lives to keeping my private key safe in perpetuity!"
"Didn't you know?" the bartender asks. "The components of the signature are just very large numbers. The sign of one of the signature components can be changed, from positive to negative, or negative to positive, and the signature will remain valid. Anyone can do that, even if they don't know the private key. But because Bitcoin includes the signatures in the transaction when it's generating the txid, this little change also changes the txid." He or she chuckles. "They say they'll fix it by separating the signatures from the transaction body. They're saying that these kinds of signature malleability won't affect transaction ids anymore after they do this, but I bet I can get my good friend Jihan Wu to delay this 'SepSig' plan for a good while yet. Friendly guy, this Jihan Wu, it turns out all I had to do was slip him 51 drinks and he was willing to mine a tx with the signature signs flipped." His or her grin widens. "I'm afraid your backoff transaction won't work anymore, since it spends a txid that is not existent and will never be confirmed. So here's the deal. You pay me 99% of the funds in the funding transaction, in exchange for me signing the transaction that spends with the txid that you see onchain. Refuse, and you lose 100% of the funds and every other HODLer, including me, benefits from the reduction in coin supply. Accept, and you get to keep 1%. I lose nothing if you refuse, so I won't care if you do, but consider the difference of getting zilch vs. getting 1% of your funds." His or her eyes glow. "GENUFLECT RIGHT NOW."
Lesson learned?

CLTV-protected Spilman Channels

Using CLTV for the backoff branch.
This variation is simply Spilman channels, but with the backoff transaction replaced with a backoff branch in the SCRIPT you pay to. It only became possible after OP_CHECKLOCKTIMEVERIFY (CLTV) was enabled in 2015.
Now as we saw in the Spilman Channels discussion, transaction malleability means that any pre-signed offchain transaction can easily be invalidated by flipping the sign of the signature of the funding transaction while the funding transaction is not yet confirmed.
This can be avoided by simply putting any special requirements into an explicit branch of the Bitcoin SCRIPT. Now, the backoff branch is supposed to create a maximum lifetime for the payment channel, and prior to the introduction of OP_CHECKLOCKTIMEVERIFY this could only be done by having a pre-signed nLockTime transaction.
With CLTV, however, we can now make the branches explicit in the SCRIPT that the funding transaction pays to.
Instead of paying to a 2-of-2 in order to set up the funding transaction, you pay to a SCRIPT which is basically "2-of-2, OR this singlesig after a specified lock time".
With this, there is no backoff transaction that is pre-signed and which refers to a specific txid. Instead, you can create the backoff transaction later, using whatever txid the funding transaction ends up being confirmed under. Since the funding transaction is immutable once confirmed, it is no longer possible to change the txid afterwards.

Todd Micropayment Networks

The old hub-spoke model (that isn't how LN today actually works).
One of the more direct predecessors of the Lightning Network was the hub-spoke model discussed by Peter Todd. In this model, instead of payers directly having channels to payees, payers and payees connect to a central hub server. This allows any payer to pay any payee, using the same channel for every payee on the hub. Similarly, this allows any payee to receive from any payer, using the same channel.
Remember from the above Spilman example? When you open a channel to the bartender, you have to wait around for the funding tx to confirm. This will take an hour at best. Now consider that you have to make channels for everyone you want to pay to. That's not very scalable.
So the Todd hub-spoke model has a central "clearing house" that transport money from payers to payees. The "Moonbeam" project takes this model. Of course, this reveals to the hub who the payer and payee are, and thus the hub can potentially censor transactions. Generally, though, it was considered that a hub would more efficiently censor by just not maintaining a channel with the payer or payee that it wants to censor (since the money it owned in the channel would just be locked uselessly if the hub won't process payments to/from the censored user).
In any case, the ability of the central hub to monitor payments means that it can surveill the payer and payee, and then sell this private transactional data to third parties. This loss of privacy would be intolerable today.
Peter Todd also proposed that there might be multiple hubs that could transport funds to each other on behalf of their users, providing somewhat better privacy.
Another point of note is that at the time such networks were proposed, only unidirectional (Spilman) channels were available. Thus, while one could be a payer, or payee, you would have to use separate channels for your income versus for your spending. Worse, if you wanted to transfer money from your income channel to your spending channel, you had to close both and reshuffle the money between them, both onchain activities.

Poon-Dryja Lightning Network

Bidirectional two-participant channels.
The Poon-Dryja channel mechanism has two important properties:
Both the original Satoshi and the two Spilman variants are unidirectional: there is a payer and a payee, and if the payee wants to do a refund, or wants to pay for a different service or product the payer is providing, then they can't use the same unidirectional channel.
The Poon-Dryjam mechanism allows channels, however, to be bidirectional instead: you are not a payer or a payee on the channel, you can receive or send at any time as long as both you and the channel counterparty are online.
Further, unlike either of the Spilman variants, there is no time limit for the lifetime of a channel. Instead, you can keep the channel open for as long as you want.
Both properties, together, form a very powerful scaling property that I believe most people have not appreciated. With unidirectional channels, as mentioned before, if you both earn and spend over the same network of payment channels, you would have separate channels for earning and spending. You would then need to perform onchain operations to "reverse" the directions of your channels periodically. Secondly, since Spilman channels have a fixed lifetime, even if you never used either channel, you would have to periodically "refresh" it by closing it and reopening.
With bidirectional, indefinite-lifetime channels, you may instead open some channels when you first begin managing your own money, then close them only after your lawyers have executed your last will and testament on how the money in your channels get divided up to your heirs: that's just two onchain transactions in your entire lifetime. That is the potentially very powerful scaling property that bidirectional, indefinite-lifetime channels allow.
I won't discuss the transaction structure needed for Poon-Dryja bidirectional channels --- it's complicated and you can easily get explanations with cute graphics elsewhere.
There is a weakness of Poon-Dryja that people tend to gloss over (because it was fixed very well by RustyReddit):
Another thing I want to emphasize is that while the Lightning Network paper and many of the earlier presentations developed from the old Peter Todd hub-and-spoke model, the modern Lightning Network takes the logical conclusion of removing a strict separation between "hubs" and "spokes". Any node on the Lightning Network can very well work as a hub for any other node. Thus, while you might operate as "mostly a payer", "mostly a forwarding node", "mostly a payee", you still end up being at least partially a forwarding node ("hub") on the network, at least part of the time. This greatly reduces the problems of privacy inherent in having only a few hub nodes: forwarding nodes cannot get significantly useful data from the payments passing through them, because the distance between the payer and the payee can be so large that it would be likely that the ultimate payer and the ultimate payee could be anyone on the Lightning Network.
Lessons learned?


After LN, there's also the Decker-Wattenhofer Duplex Micropayment Channels (DMC). This post is long enough as-is, LOL. But for now, it uses a novel "decrementing nSequence channel", using the new relative-timelock semantics of nSequence (not the broken one originally by Satoshi). It actually uses multiple such "decrementing nSequence" constructs, terminating in a pair of Spilman channels, one in both directions (thus "duplex"). Maybe I'll discuss it some other time.
The realization that channel constructions could actually hold more channel constructions inside them (the way the Decker-Wattenhofer puts a pair of Spilman channels inside a series of "decrementing nSequence channels") lead to the further thought behind Burchert-Decker-Wattenhofer channel factories. Basically, you could host multiple two-participant channel constructs inside a larger multiparticipant "channel" construct (i.e. host multiple channels inside a factory).
Further, we have the Decker-Russell-Osuntokun or "eltoo" construction. I'd argue that this is "nSequence done right". I'll write more about this later, because this post is long enough.
Lessons learned?
submitted by almkglor to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

I've been in since May 2017, lessons learned, and some real talk.

I've only been in the crypto game since mid 2017. I remember back then when I was assessing the market, BTC was below $1k a few months earlier, LTC was around $4 that January and by the time I finally got in BTC had more than doubled to around $2,500 and LTC was $30. I thought ETH and XRP (and everything else) were just shitcoins because I didn't know shit and I just listened to the herd (Back then the argument was "Bitcoin is digital gold and LTC is digital silver and everything else is a scam.") Now, I'm pretty invested in several coins, because this market is anything but rational.
Screw off if you think otherwise. Try to think logically in this market, and you're going to get smacked in the face.
After exchanging my first fiat for crypto, in the next couple of months the market "crashed" and I was fearful. By crashed, I mean BTC went from $2,800 to $1,800. I just decided to let my cryptos ride. I pretended that money was gone, but I'd check prices every day for whatever damn reason.
I wasn't even putting that much in. Hell, I would spend more eating out and going to the bars every weekend with friends or work colleagues than I was dropping into BTC. It was pretty common that I'd drop $100 a night on sushi, beers, and Sake Bombs. But, when money you could get back loses value, it makes you feel dumb for putting money in. Logic is out the window when I can't get that $100 back from my sushi and drink purchases, but my crypto dropped 30% that week, so I was dumb for investing in crypto but not for my $500+ per month on eating out and drinking with friends.
Several weeks later, I was back to even on my crypto investments. Well shit, that was fast. Then I was suddenly up 25%. "Fuck it, I'm just putting money in. I'm not missing out."
By the the winter of 2017, I was up over 10x with my crypto speculation. My initial LTC went from $30 to over $350; my BTC went from $2,500 to $20,000. I also just threw $300-$1,000 here and there on random sub-200 market cap coins only to see them 6x in a few weeks.
I remember thinking how stupid I was for not buying during that dip down to $1,800, but how good of an investor I was because my gains. What a fucking dope I was.
I was sitting there looking at my account on December 10th, 2017. I was about to sell because I could have paid off my car and 50% of my student loans. I wasn't even using my car because I was in another country traveling.
"Nah, I can't sell. This is just the beginning; let's wait until I can pay off all my student loans" my delusional self said.
I never cashed out. I remember sitting there with a dude who had his GDAX account open after BTC "crashed" from $20k to $13k two weeks later. We just got back from surfing.
He was still sitting at $250,000 in his account and was nervous as shit. "What should I do?" he asked rhetorically. Then immediately answered himself, "It will rebound," he said, "it always does." This guy had been through the MTGOX hack and gave me plenty of advice while we surfed.
And I listened as if he was prophetic.
What a fucking dope I was.
When hopium is in the air, we all get irrational.
I still wonder about that guy and his cryptos. He went north back home for the Christmas holiday, while I headed south for more traveling, and I've never seen him again.
February 2018 was both euphoric and scary as shit. "Holy shit! BTC is under $10k I never thought it would be down here again. But it could keep dropping. But it was just $20k a month ago."
I was skeptical that it wouldn't keep dropping so I waited. Then, I didn't want to miss out. BTC was making a run from $6,500 up to testing $10k. "If it breaks $10k, I'm getting back in."
A short time later, it did break $10k, only to be hit a wall at $12k, then again...then, the inevitable crash to $6,200 happened where it fluctuated in August - November of 2018 up until, what, November 10th-ish when BCH shitfork shat out and then BTC-Shit-Vision and BTC-LMNOP started paying miners to mine their forked fork of BTC and everyone shat themselves as the market tanked yet again.
That was it for me. That was the day I stopped caring. I remember thinking how stupid I was to invest so much time in this.
You can't predict this shit.
I didn't regret investing in crypto, I regret all the time spent looking at my portfolio, trying to time the market, pretending I was some guru in my head because I threw $300 at POE when it was less than a penny and weeks later it was selling for $0.21 and could buy another trip to whatever country I wanted.
Sure, you can use TA to see what support or resistance is there, but it's still a 50-50 chance whether Fake Satoshi is going to spoof trade or some rando is going to drop three 7,000 BTC market buys to break through resistance.
So, what did I learn through this whole experience?
Other than what I've already stated (You have no way to predict whether it's breaking through resistance or crashing through support).
I just remember the main thing that has persisted this last two years. "I wish I could go back in time to when BTC was around $3,000 and LTC was $30."
When BTC dropped below, $4k that was heaven. I never thought it would get back to when I was buying when I first got into the market in 2017.
So, I bought, and I bought hard.
This time around, I have strong buy strategies and sell strategies.
They are set; no question.
For me, I'm not selling until two weeks before the LTC halving in August.
Even then, I'm only selling my LTC for BTC. Then I'll sell 25% of my BTC for fiat 2 weeks before the BTC halving in 2020.
I will never have less than my preferred number of BTC's, ETH's, LTC's and a few others.
Don't follow my advice here, I'm just saying I know what I want and what my strategy is.
You need to have a strategy to buy and strategy to sell. Be reasonable. I previously had a "strategy." It was once I could pay off my student loans with all of my crypto gains minus taxes, I would sell. Yeah, well, looking back if I would have just sold when could pay off my car and 50% of my student loans, I would have been able to invest even more when BTC was down in $3,xxx range and LTC was $22-$35, etc from December 2018 through March 2019.
DCAing is the way to go. No question. You don't need to do TA, you don't need to check your portfolio, you don't need to do shit but either 1) setup an automatic buy order with your exchange or 2) login and buy whatever you want.
You have your buy strategy (DCA at x interval) and you have your sell strategy.
Figure it out. Don't pretend you're gonna time the market. Don't pretend you're some guru.
Those people, like me, learn the hard way.
No TA, no waiting for google searches of BTC to increase, no waiting for BAKKT, no waiting for Faktoshi to shut the fuck up.
Before November 2018, I would only throw money when BTC was on a run. "Oh, we're finally on the way up. It's time to buy!" Like when it went from $2,800 up to $6,200 in the summer 2017, then from $10k to $20k in late 2017. Or when it went from $6,200 back up to $10,000 then to $11,900 in February of 2018.
I would think I could time the market. What a pathetic loser, right?
Some people grow up in this market like the cable version of themselves only to transition to the directv version. Listen to us dopes that have been there and done that.
Learn from our mistakes, but also don't think that we have all the damn answers.
Anyone that comes in here acting like the 2nd coming of Craig Wright's dumpster twin, you can be rest assured they are as delusional as Justin Sun. The problem is, even if they are delusional, this market is anything but rational, so they might just be proven right enough for you to think you should follow their advice.
This shit is crazy. Stop acting like you've got it figured out.
Nobody does, but it feels good to have confidence in this random speculation, right?
I'm here to tell you this. My life has drastically improved since November 2018 when I started viewing Crypto investments like a bill. Every two weeks, I would send money from my paycheck to my exchange. Then, I'd buy a certain amount every single week after it had cleared.
That money, is all but "gone." It was a "bill" I paid.
When the market is going down, I send more fiat and I buy more crypto. When it is rising, I still buy, but not as much; I pull back. You may say I'm trying to catch a falling knife. I just learned that the way I was investing before was bad practice. I'd rather people think I'm trying to catch a falling knife than to feel that FOMO and only buy when the market is up.
Right now for example, I'm not buying this week. Not because I think I know what hell is going to happen, but because it's my strategy to not chase a run, and to spend more when it drops.
I'll wait until next weekend and see what the market is doing.
What happens in between now and next weekend, I don't give a shit.
Could I miss out on another run? Sure, but I don't give a shit. Maybe it's because I'm 2 years in and I've seen this shit before, or maybe it's because I've been buying BTC when it was around $3,000 both in 2017 and just about a month ago, so I feel fortunate to have gotten another chance at BTC at $3,xxx.
I also learned my lesson that fakeouts happen. I've been burned enough to not give a shit about being BTC going from $3500 to $5,200 in the last, what, 5 weeks?
Been here, done it, don't give a shit.
I don't know if this helps anyone, but seeing the last two years of this shit, I don't care about some random 30% pump. I also don't care that BCH is up 86%, or ADA is up whatever it is. I'm not into them, but if you made gains, I'm happy for you.
I'm serious too.
Maybe you're new to this game, or maybe you've only been in since $20k. If so, you're still here, and there are plenty others like you. I'm not a BTC maximalist, I don't think LTC is the truth, I don't think only ETH is the dApp platform.
I don't know shit. I'm just some speculator that is speculating on some of this sit.
There are also plenty of people that were like me in 2017 that are waiting in the wings, only to buy when the market is on the rise. There are plenty more that buy when it's rising then set stop losses that whales will fish for only to wreck the market in a day then to see a bounce back even stronger while those people FOMO back in.
Also, the turd version of satoshi could start shitting in public this week and the media could write about how Satoshi is literally shitting on a physical Bitcoin as we speak and some shitcoin creator then posts a Twitter video that goes viral about how the hashrate and energy consumption of the satoshi shit-pile is not sustainable and then some whale market sells down to below the new TA shit-support level of $4,400 and then all the dopes with stop losses in that range get shit fucked only to see a spoof limit order set at $4,400 of 10,000 BTC and everyone's dick shrinks into their stomach as they hurry to Tether as BTC drops back down to $3,500 before whale #2 shit fucks your emotions with a $1,500 green dildo in a 15 minute span sees the "sell wall" disappear which starts the next FOMO run on up to $6,200 a few weeks later while TAers say "We broke out on great volume" then other TAers agree and the self-fulling prophecy starts another run only to get hit with more whale fuckers.
You can't predict this shit. Give it up.
Market goes up, market goes down, can't explain that.
With the LTC halving in August, the BTC halving in May 2020, I think we are about to get into the 2017 euphoria again though. We are getting closeTM to the point you could just thrown money at any coin and get 10x your investment.
What does "close" mean? I have no idea. Eff anyone that thinks they know. Someone could predict it is this week, next month, or after this current fakeout bull run, or in December, or next Spring, and someone will be right.
The only advice I have is to do your best to not get emotional about your money or crypto. It's going to do the exact opposite of what you think it will. Even when you try to do the opposite, crypto will shit-fuck you in your sleep.
If you believe that the sentiment is changing, and let's be real, we are in speculation phase and this is all based on hopium and belief, then DCA at certain intervals.
This isn't some cult. It's all based on sentiment. If you think people are starting to get interested, then that is a sign speculation is about to be in our favor.
If you are putting money in that needs to be rent money, do yourself a favor and just walk into a casino and put it all on red. If you win, then put your winnings in crypto. If you lose, I saved you the anguish of checking your portfolio every hour only wish you would have done the opposite of what you did.
You're welcome...
Or, do the opposite. Check the market every hour for the next 12 months only to look back and realize that you kept buying on the way up, got scared and sold on the way down, and then FUD yourself in your sleep because of your stop loss sells were triggered while whales were fishing for fear.
So, there are all of my shit thoughts. What are yours?
What are your strategies?
There are plenty of people that have been in longer than me, what are your strategies?
Are we heading for a the next bull run? Is the bottom in? Do we still have a massive, short-lived capitulation event coming?
Let's chat.
TL;DR: You can't predict this shit, just DCA, live your life, get a buy strategy, choose a sell point, make this shit as simple as possible. If you try to complicate things by predicting the next run, the next drop, the next consolidation, then you're probably going to be wrong like 99% of people. And don't be that guy that ends up $250,000 in your account in the next bull run only to see it drop down $67,000 literally a week later.
submitted by KnownCoder to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Too late..?

As same as you guys i lost money when Mtgox "went down" in March of 2014. I lost around 1000 $ and when it happened i just thought for myself to just "take the loss". I did get some e-mails after a year or so about the bankruptcy for Mtgox, but never really thought that it was any idea for me to get involved in the process. Partly because i live in Sweden and my English is pretty limited, especially when it comes do academic/law English. So i just deleted the emails and did not put much energy to it.
But 1-2 weeks ago i received a letter from japan regarding "Civil Rehabilitation proceedings". As i mentioned before my English is limited so the letter did not make that much sense. So after a bit of googleing and finding out that the case against mtgox has moved from a bankruptcy to a "Civil Rehabilitation proceedings" with the changed conditions that you could get your bitcoins back and not just the fiat currency that the bitcoins was valued back at 2014. Because the surge in price of bitcoins the last years this felt like i needed to look deeper into.
So that is why i write here, have looked here a little bit but it seems like most people here has already filed a claim or at least been more involved? My question is: Is it too late to do anything now, and what should i do? (where do i start). The only thing i know from when Mtgox was still online is my e-mail and approx balance. I do not know my password, account number, BTC-adresses etc.
I have tried to look a bit here: But i do not get wiser. Sorry for the trouble, but all these advanced English just gives me a headache.
Any tip or help would be really appreciated!
Thanks in advance
submitted by Bollen112 to mtgoxinsolvency [link] [comments]

An extensive guide for cashing out bitcoin and cryptocurrencies into private banks

Hey guys.
Merry Xmas !
I am coming back to you with a follow up post, as I have helped many people cash out this year and I have streamlined the process. After my original post, I received many requests to be more specific and provide more details. I thought that after the amazing rally we have been attending over the last few months, and the volatility of the last few days, it would be interesting to revisit more extensively.
The attitude of banks around crypto is changing slowly, but it is still a tough stance. For the first partial cash out I operated around a year ago for a client, it took me months to find a bank. They wouldn’t want to even consider the case and we had to knock at each and every door. Despite all my contacts it was very difficult back in the days. This has changed now, and banks have started to open their doors, but there is a process, a set of best practices and codes one has to follow.
I often get requests from crypto guys who are very privacy-oriented, and it takes me months to have them understand that I am bound by Swiss law on banking secrecy, and I am their ally in this onboarding process. It’s funny how I have to convince people that banks are legit, while on the other side, banks ask me to show that crypto millionaires are legit. I have a solid background in both banking and in crypto so I manage to make the bridge, but yeah sometimes it is tough to reconcile the two worlds. I am a crypto enthusiast myself and I can say that after years of work in the banking industry I have grown disillusioned towards banks as well, like many of you. Still an account in a Private bank is convenient and powerful. So let’s get started.
There are two different aspects to your onboarding in a Swiss Private bank, compliance-wise.
*The origin of your crypto wealth
*Your background (residence, citizenship and probity)
These two aspects must be documented in-depth.
How to document your crypto wealth. Each new crypto millionaire has a different story. I may detail a few fun stories later in this post, but at the end of the day, most of crypto rich I have met can be categorized within the following profiles: the miner, the early adopter, the trader, the corporate entity, the black market, the libertarian/OTC buyer. The real question is how you prove your wealth is legit.
1. Context around the original amount/investment Generally speaking, your first crypto purchase may not be documented. But the context around this acquisition can be. I have had many cases where the original amount was bought through Mtgox, and no proof of purchase could be provided, nor could be documented any Mtgox claim. That’s perfectly fine. At some point Mtgox amounted 70% of the bitcoin transactions globally, and people who bought there and managed to withdraw and keep hold of their bitcoins do not have any Mtgox claim. This is absolutely fine. However, if you can show me the record of a wire from your bank to Tisbane (Mtgox's parent company) it's a great way to start.
Otherwise, what I am trying to document here is the following: I need context. If you made your first purchase by saving from summer jobs, show me a payroll. Even if it was USD 2k. If you acquired your first bitcoins from mining, show me the bills of your mining equipment from 2012 or if it was through a pool mine, give me your slushpool account ref for instance. If you were given bitcoin against a service you charged, show me an invoice.
2. Tracking your wealth until today and making sense of it. What I have been doing over the last few months was basically educating compliance officers. Thanks God, the blockchain is a global digital ledger! I have been telling my auditors and compliance officers they have the best tool at their disposal to lead a proper investigation. Whether you like it or not, your wealth can be tracked, from address to address. You may have thought all along this was a bad feature, but I am telling you, if you want to cash out, in the context of Private Banking onboarding, tracking your wealth through the block explorer is a boon. We can see the inflows, outflows. We can see the age behind an address. An early adopter who bought 1000 BTC in 2010, and let his bitcoin behind one address and held thus far is legit, whether or not he has a proof of purchase to show. That’s just common sense. My job is to explain that to the banks in a language they understand.
Let’s have a look at a few examples and how to document the few profiles I mentioned earlier.
The trader. I love traders. These are easy cases. I have a ton of respect for them. Being a trader myself in investment banks for a decade earlier in my career has taught me that controlling one’s emotions and having the discipline to impose oneself some proper risk management system is really really hard. Further, being able to avoid the exchange bankruptcy and hacks throughout crypto history is outstanding. It shows real survival instinct, or just plain blissed ignorance. In any cases traders at exchange are easy cases to corroborate since their whole track record is potentially available. Some traders I have met have automated their trading and have shown me more than 500k trades done over the span of 4 years. Obviously in this kind of scenario I don’t show everything to the bank to avoid information overload, and prefer to do some snacking here and there. My strategy is to show the early trades, the most profitable ones, explain the trading strategy and (partially expose) the situation as of now with id pages of the exchanges and current balance. Many traders have become insensitive to the risk of parking their crypto at exchange as they want to be able to trade or to grasp an occasion any minute, so they generally do not secure a substantial portion on the blockchain which tends to make me very nervous.
The early adopter. Provided that he has not mixed his coin, the early adopter or “hodler” is not a difficult case either. Who cares how you bought your first 10k btc if you bought them below 3$ ? Even if you do not have a purchase proof, I would generally manage to find ways. We just have to corroborate the original 30’000 USD investment in this case. I mainly focus on three things here:
*proof of early adoption I have managed to educate some banks on a few evidences specifically related to crypto markets. For instance with me, an old bitcointalk account can serve as a proof of early adoption. Even an old reddit post from a few years ago where you say how much you despise this Ripple premined scam can prove to be a treasure readily available to show you were early.
*story telling Compliance officers like to know when, why and how. They are human being looking for simple answers to simple questions and they don’t want like to be played fool. Telling the truth, even without a proof can do wonders, and even though bluffing might still work because banks don’t fully understand bitcoin yet, it is a risky strategy that is less and less likely to pay off as they are getting more sophisticated by the day.
*micro transaction from an old address you control This is the killer feature. Send a $20 worth transaction from an old address to my company wallet and to one of my partner bank’s wallet and you are all set ! This is gold and considered a very solid piece of evidence. You can also do a microtransaction to your own wallet, but banks generally prefer transfer to their own wallet. Patience with them please. they are still learning.
*signature message Why do a micro transaction when you can sign a message and avoid potentially tainting your coins ?
*ICO millionaire Some clients made their wealth participating in ETH crowdsale or IOTA ICO. They were very easy to deal with obviously and the account opening was very smooth since we could evidence the GENESIS TxHash flow.
The miner Not so easy to proof the wealth is legit in that case. Most early miners never took screenshot of the blocks on bitcoin core, nor did they note down the block number of each block they mined. Until the the Slashdot article from August 2010 anyone could mine on his laptop, let his computer run overnight and wake up to a freshly minted block containing 50 bitcoins back in the days. Not many people were structured enough to store and secure these coins, avoid malwares while syncing the blockchain continuously, let alone document the mined blocks in the process. What was 50 BTC worth really for the early miners ? dust of dollars, games and magic cards… Even miners post 2010 are generally difficult to deal with in terms of compliance onboarding. Many pool mining are long dead. Deepbit is down for instance and the founders are MIA. So my strategy to proof mining activity is as follow:
*Focusing on IT background whenever possible. An IT background does help a lot to bring some substance to the fact you had the technical ability to operate a mining rig.
*Showing mining equipment receipts. If you mined on your own you must have bought the hardware to do so. For instance mining equipment receipts from butterfly lab from 2012-2013 could help document your case. Similarly, high electricity bill from your household on a consistent basis back in the day could help. I have already unlocked a tricky case in the past with such documents when the bank was doubtful.
*Wallet.dat files with block mining transactions from 2011 thereafter This obviously is a fantastic piece of evidence for both you and me if you have an old wallet and if you control an address that received original mined blocks, (even if the wallet is now empty). I will make sure compliance officers understand what it means, and as for the early adopter, you can prove your control over these wallet through a microtransaction. With these kind of addresses, I can show on the block explorer the mined block rewards hitting at regular time interval, and I can even spot when difficulty level increased or when halvening process happened.
*Poolmining account. Here again I have educated my partner bank to understand that a slush account opened in 2013 or an OnionTip presence was enough to corroborate mining activity. The block explorer then helps me to do the bridge with your current wallet.
*Describing your set up and putting it in context In the history of mining we had CPU, GPU, FPG and ASICs mining. I will describe your technical set up and explain why and how your set up was competitive at that time.
The corporate entity Remember 2012 when we were all convinced bitcoin would take over the world, and soon everyone would pay his coffee in bitcoin? How naïve we were to think transaction fees would remain low forever. I don’t blame bitcoin cash supporters; I once shared this dream as well. Remember when we thought global adoption was right around the corner and some brick and mortar would soon accept bitcoin transaction as a common mean of payment? Well, some shop actually did accept payment and held. I had a few cases as such of shops holders, who made it to the multi million mark holding and had invoices or receipts to proof the transactions. If you are organized enough to keep a record for these trades and are willing to cooperate for the documentation, you are making your life easy. The digital advertising business is also a big market for the bitcoin industry, and affiliates partner compensated in btc are common. It is good to show an invoice, it is better to show a contract. If you do not have a contract (which is common since all advertising deals are about ticking a check box on the website to accept terms and conditions), there are ways around that. If you are in that case, pm me.
The black market Sorry guys, I can’t do much for you officially. Not that I am judging you. I am a libertarian myself. It’s just already very difficult to onboard legit btc adopters, so the black market is a market I cannot afford to consider. My company is regulated so KYC and compliance are key for me if I want to stay in business. Behind each case I push forward I am risking the credibility and reputation I have built over the years. So I am sorry guys I am not risking it to make an extra buck. Your best hope is that crypto will eventually take over the world and you won’t need to cash out anyway. Or go find a Lithuanian bank that is light on compliance and cooperative.
The OTC buyer and the libertarian. Generally a very difficult case. If you bought your stack during your journey in Japan 5 years ago to a guy you never met again; or if you accumulated on and kept no record or lost your account, it is going to be difficult. Not impossible but difficult. We will try to build a case with everything else we have, and I may be able to onboard you. However I am risking a lot here so I need to be 100% confident you are legit, before I defend you. Come & see me in Geneva, and we will talk. I will run forensic services like elliptic, chainalysis, or scorechain on an extract of your wallet. If this scan does not raise too many red flags, then maybe we can work together ! If you mixed your coins all along your crypto history, and shredded your seeds because you were paranoid, or if you made your wealth mining professionally monero over the last 3 years but never opened an account at an exchange. ¯_(ツ)_/¯ I am not a magician and don’t get me wrong, I love monero, it’s not the point.
Cashing out ICOs Private companies or foundations who have ran an ICO generally have a very hard time opening a bank account. The few banks that accept such projects would generally look at 4 criteria:
*Seriousness of the project Extensive study of the whitepaper to limit the reputation risk
*AML of the onboarding process ICOs 1.0 have no chance basically if a background check of the investors has not been conducted
*Structure of the moral entity List of signatories, certificate of incumbency, work contract, premises...
*Fiscal conformity Did the company informed the authorities and seek a fiscal ruling.
For the record, I am not into the tax avoidance business, so people come to me with a set up and I see if I can make it work within the legal framework imposed to me.
First, stop thinking Switzerland is a “offshore heaven” Swiss banks have made deals with many governments for the exchange of fiscal information. If you are a French citizen, resident in France and want to open an account in a Private Bank in Switzerland to cash out your bitcoins, you will get slaughtered (>60%). There are ways around that, and I could refer you to good tax specialists for fiscal optimization, but I cannot organize it myself. It would be illegal for me. Swiss private banks makes it easy for you to keep a good your relation with your retail bank and continue paying your bills without headaches. They are integrated to SEPA, provide ebanking and credit cards.
For information, these are the kind of set up some of my clients came up with. It’s all legal; obviously I do not onboard clients that are not tax compliant. Further disclaimer: I did not contribute myself to these set up. Do not ask me to organize it for you. I won’t.
EU tricks
Swiss lump sum taxation Foreign nationals resident in Switzerland can be taxed on a lump-sum basis if they are not gainfully employed in our country. Under the lump-sum tax regime, foreign nationals taking residence in Switzerland may choose to pay an expense-based tax instead of ordinary income and wealth tax. Attractive cantons for the lump sum taxation are Zug, Vaud, Valais, Grisons, Lucerne and Berne. To make it short, you will be paying somewhere between 200 and 400k a year and all expenses will be deductible.
Switzerland has adopted a very friendly attitude towards crypto currency in general. There is a whole crypto valley in Zug now. 30% of ICOs are operated in Switzerland. The reason is that Switzerland has thrived for centuries on banking secrecy, and today with FATCA and exchange of fiscal info with EU, banking secrecy is dead. Regulators in Switzerland have understood that digital ledger technologies were a way to roll over this competitive advantage for the generations to come. Switzerland does not tax capital gains on crypto profits. The Finma has a very pragmatic approach. They have issued guidance- updated guidelines here. They let the business get organized and operate their analysis on a case per case basis. Only after getting a deep understanding of the market will they issue a global fintech license in 2019. This approach is much more realistic than legislations which try to regulate everything beforehand.
Italy new tax exemption. It’s a brand new fiscal exemption. Go to Aoste, get residency and you could be taxed a 100k/year for 10years. Yes, really.
Portugal What’s crazy in Europe is the lack of fiscal harmonization. Even if no one in Brussels dares admit it, every other country is doing fiscal dumping. Portugal is such a country and has proved very friendly fiscally speaking. I personally have a hard time trusting Europe. I have witnessed what happened in Greece over the last few years. Some of our ultra high net worth clients got stuck with capital controls. I mean no way you got out of crypto to have your funds confiscated at the next financial crisis! Anyway. FYI
Malta Generally speaking, if you get a residence somewhere you have to live there for a certain period of time. Being stuck in Italy is no big deal with Schengen Agreement, but in Malta it is a different story. In Malta, the ordinary residence scheme is more attractive than the HNWI residence scheme. Being an individual, you can hold a residence permit under this scheme and pay zero income tax in Malta in a completely legal way.
Monaco Not suitable for French citizens, but for other Ultra High Net worth individual, Monaco is worth considering. You need an account at a local bank as a proof of fortune, and this account generally has to be seeded with at least EUR500k. You also need a proof of residence. I do mean UHNI because if you don’t cash out minimum 30m it’s not interesting. Everything is expensive in Monaco. Real Estate is EUR 50k per square meter. A breakfast at Monte Carlo Bay hotel is 70 EUR. Monaco is sunny but sometimes it feels like a golden jail. Do you really want that for your kids?
  1. Set up a company in Dubaï, get your resident card.
  2. Spend one day every 6 month there
  3. ???
  4. Be tax free
US tricks Some Private banks in Geneva do have the license to manage the assets of US persons and U.S citizens. However, do not think it is a way to avoid paying taxes in the US. Opening an account at an authorized Swiss Private banks is literally the same tax-wise as opening an account at Fidelity or at Bank of America in the US. The only difference is that you will avoid all the horror stories. Horror stories are all real by the way. In Switzerland, if you build a decent case and answer all the questions and corroborate your case in depth, you will manage to convince compliance officers beforehand. When the money eventually hits your account, it is actually available and not frozen.
The IRS and FATCA require to file FBAR if an offshore account is open. However FBAR is a reporting requirement and does not have taxes related to holding an account outside the US. The taxes would be the same if the account was in the US. However penalties for non compliance with FBAR are very large. The tax liability management is actually performed through the management of the assets ( for exemple by maximizing long term capital gains and minimizing short term gains).
The case for Porto Rico. Full disclaimer here. I am not encouraging this. Have not collaborated on such tax avoidance schemes. if you are interested I strongly encourage you to seek a tax advisor and get a legal opinion. I am not responsible for anything written below. I am not going to say much because I am so afraid of uncle Sam that I prefer to humbly pass the hot potato to pwc From here all it takes is a good advisor and some creativity to be tax free on your crypto wealth if you are a US person apparently. Please, please please don’t ask me more. And read the disclaimer again.
Trust tricks Generally speaking I do not accept fringe fiscal situation because it puts me in a difficult situation to the banks I work with, and it is already difficult enough to defend a legit crypto case. Trust might be a way to optimize your fiscal situation. Belize. Bahamas. Seychelles. Panama, You name it. At the end of the day, what matters for Swiss Banks are the beneficial owner and the settlor. Get a legal opinion, get it done, and when you eventually knock at a private bank’s door, don’t say it was for fiscal avoidance you stupid ! You will get the door smashed upon you. Be smarter. It will work. My advice is just to have it done by a great tax specialist lawyer, even if it costs you some money, as the entity itself needs to be structured in a professional way. Remember that with trust you are dispossessing yourself off your wealth. Not something to be taken lightly.
“Anonymous” cash out. Right. I think I am not going into this topic, neither expose the ways to get it done. Pm me for details. I already feel a bit uncomfortable with all the info I have provided. I am just going to mention many people fear that crypto exchange might become reporting entities soon, and rightly so. This might happen anyday. You have been warned. FYI, this only works for non-US and large cash out.
The difference between traders an investors. Danmark, Holland and Germany all make a huge difference if you are a passive investor or if you are a trader. ICO is considered investing for instance and is not taxed, while trading might be considered as income and charged aggressively. I would try my best to protect you and put a focus on your investor profile whenever possible, so you don't have to pay 52% tax if you do not have to :D
Full cash out or partial cash out? People who have been sitting on crypto for long have grown an emotional and irrational link with their coins. They come to me and say, look, I have 50m in crypto but I would like to cash out 500k only. So first let me tell you that as a wealth manager my advice to you is to take some off the table. Doing a partial cash out is absolutely fine. The market is bullish. We are witnessing a redistribution of wealth at a global scale. Bitcoin is the real #occupywallstreet, and every one will discuss crypto at Xmas eve which will make the market even more supportive beginning 2018, especially with all hedge funds entering the scene. If you want to stay exposed to bitcoin and altcoins, and believe these techs will change the world, it’s just natural you want to keep some coins. In the meantime, if you have lived off pizzas over the last years, and have the means to now buy yourself an nice house and have an account at a private bank, then f***ing do it mate ! Buy physical gold with this account, buy real estate, have some cash at hands. Even though US dollar is worthless to your eyes, it’s good and convenient to have some. Also remember your wife deserves it ! And if you have no wife yet and you are socially awkward like the rest of us, then maybe cashing out partially will help your situation ;)
What the Private Banks expect. Joke aside, it is important you understand something. If you come around in Zurich to open a bank account and partially cash out, just don’t expect Private Banks will make an exception for you if you are small. You can’t ask them to facilitate your cash out, buy a 1m apartment with the proceeds of the sale, and not leave anything on your current account. It won’t work. Sadly, under 5m you are considered small in private banking. The bank is ok to let you open an account, provided that your kyc and compliance file are validated, but they will also want you to become a client and leave some money there to invest. This might me despicable, but I am just explaining you their rules. If you want to cash out, you should sell enough to be comfortable and have some left. Also expect the account opening to last at least 3-4 week if everything goes well. You can't just open an account overnight.
The cash out logistics. Cashing out 1m USD a day in bitcoin or more is not so hard.
Let me just tell you this: Even if you get a Tier 4 account with Kraken and ask Alejandro there to raise your limit over $100k per day, Even if you have a bitfinex account and you are willing to expose your wealth there, Even if you have managed to pass all the crazy due diligence at Bitstamp,
The amount should be fractioned to avoid risking your full wealth on exchange and getting slaughtered on the price by trading big quantities. Cashing out involves significant risks at all time. There is a security risk of compromising your keys, a counterparty risk, a fat finger risk. Let it be done by professionals. It is worth every single penny.
Most importantly, there is a major difference between trading on an exchange and trading OTC. Even though it’s not publicly disclosed some exchange like Kraken do have OTC desks. Trading on an exchange for a large amount will weight on the prices. Bitcoin is a thin market. In my opinion over 30% of the coins are lost in translation forever. Selling $10m on an exchange in a day can weight on the prices more than you’d think. And if you trade on a exchange, everything is shown on record, and you might wipe out the prices because on exchanges like bitstamp or kraken ultimately your counterparties are retail investors and the market depth is not huge. It is a bit better on Bitfinex. It is way better to trade OTC. Accessing the institutional OTC market is not easy, and that is also the reason why you should ask a regulated financial intermediary if we are talking about huge amounts.
Last point, always chose EUR as opposed to USD. EU correspondent banks won’t generally block institutional amounts. However we had the cases of USD funds frozen or delayed by weeks.
Most well-known OTC desks are Cumberlandmining (ask for Lucas), Genesis (ask for Martin), Bitcoin Suisse AG (ask for Niklas), circletrade, B2C2, or Altcoinomy (ask for Olivier)
Very very large whales can also set up escrow accounts for massive block trades. This world, where blocks over 30k BTC are exchanged between 2 parties would deserve a reddit thread of its own. Crazyness all around.
Your options: DIY or going through a regulated financial intermediary.
Execution trading is a job in itself. You have to be patient, be careful not to wipe out the order book and place limit orders, monitor the market intraday for spikes or opportunities. At big levels, for a large cash out that may take weeks, these kind of details will save you hundred thousands of dollars. I understand crypto holders are suspicious and may prefer to do it by themselves, but there are regulated entities who now offer the services. Besides, being a crypto millionaire is not a guarantee you will get institutional daily withdrawal limits at exchange. You might, but it will take you another round of KYC with them, and surprisingly this round might be even more aggressive that the ones at Private banks since exchange have gone under intense scrutiny by regulators lately.
The fees for cashing out through a regulated financial intermediary to help you with your cash out should be around 1-2% flat on the nominal, not more. And for this price you should get the full package: execution/monitoring of the trades AND onboarding in a private bank. If you are asked more, you are being abused.
Of course, you also have the option to do it yourself. It is a way more tedious and risky process. Compliance with the exchange, compliance with the private bank, trading BTC/fiat, monitoring the transfers…You will save some money but it will take you some time and stress. Further, if you approach a private bank directly, it will trigger a series of red flag to the banks. As I said in my previous post, they call a direct approach a “walk-in”. They will be more suspicious than if you were introduced by someone and won’t hesitate to show you high fees and load your portfolio with in-house products that earn more money to the banks than to you. Remember also most banks still do not understand crypto so you will have a lot of explanations to provide and you will have to start form scratch with them!
The paradox of crypto millionaires Most of my clients who made their wealth through crypto all took massive amount of risks to end up where they are. However, most of them want their bank account to be managed with a low volatility fixed income capital preservation risk profile. This is a paradox I have a hard time to explain and I think it is mainly due to the fact that most are distrustful towards banks and financial markets in general. Many clients who have sold their crypto also have a cash-out blues in the first few months. This is a classic situation. The emotions involved in hodling for so long, the relief that everything has eventually gone well, the life-changing dynamics, the difficulties to find a new motivation in life…All these elements may trigger a post cash-out depression. It is another paradox of the crypto rich who has every card in his hand to be happy, but often feel a bit sad and lonely. Sometimes, even though it’s not my job, I had to do some psychological support. A lot of clients have also become my friends, because we have the same age and went through the same “ordeal”. First world problem I know… Remember, cashing out is not the end. It’s actually the beginning. Don’t look back, don’t regret. Cash out partially, because it does not make sense to cash out in full, regret it and want back in. relax.
The race to cash out crypto billionaire and the concept of late exiter. The Winklevoss brothers are obviously the first of a series. There will be crypto billionaires. Many of them. At a certain level you can have a whole family office working for you to manage your assets and take care of your needs . However, let me tell you it’s is not because you made it so big that you should think you are a genius and know everything better than anyone. You should hire professionals to help you. Managing assets require some education around the investment vehicles and risk management strategies. Sorry guys but with all the respect I have for wallstreebet, AMD and YOLO stock picking, some discipline is necessary. The investors who have made money through crypto are generally early adopters. However I have started to see another profile popping up. They are not early adopters. They are late exiters. It is another way but just as efficient. Last week I met the first crypto millionaire I know who first bough bitcoin over 1000$. 55k invested at the beginning of this year. Late adopter & late exiter is a route that can lead to the million.
Last remarks. I know banks, bankers, and FIAT currencies are so last century. I know some of you despise them and would like to have them burn to the ground. With compliance officers taking over the business, I would like to start the fire myself sometimes. I hope this extensive guide has helped some of you. I am around if you need more details. I love my job despite all my frustration towards the banking industry because it makes me meet interesting people on a daily basis. I am a crypto enthusiast myself, and I do think this tech is here to stay and will change the world. Banks will have to adapt big time. Things have started to change already; they understand the threat is real. I can feel the generational gap in Geneva, with all these old bankers who don’t get what’s going on. They glaze at the bitcoin chart on CNBC in disbelief and they start to get it. This bitcoin thing is not a joke. Deep inside, as an early adopter who also intends to be a late exiter, as a libertarian myself, it makes me smile with satisfaction.
Cheers. @swisspb on telegram
submitted by Swissprivatebanker to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Notes from the Hearing Today

Apologies for typos and grammatical errors; wanted to get this out as soon as possible for those that weren't able to watch the live stream. Cleaned up formatting to make it more readable.

While this isn't a 100% word-for-word transcript, the overtone of the meeting should have been conveyed. SEC and CFTC want protections for consumers, but don't want to outright ban crypto. I was under the impression that both agencies were well-educated, but understaffed. They both want to introduce protections for customers and investors and go after scam artists, but don't want to impose any restrictions or regulations that would be bad for crypto as a whole (both from a security perspective, and a technological innovation perspective). Overall a huge positive.

Sen. Shelby
Sen. Shelby
Sen. Shelby
Sen. Shelby
Sen Reed
Sen Reed
Sen Reed
Ms. Warren
Ms. Warren
Ms. Warren
Ms. Warren
Ms. Warren
Ms. Warren
Sen. Kennedy
Sen Kennedy
Sen Kennedy
Sen Kennedy
Sen Kennedy
Ms. Masto
Ms. Masto
Ms. Masto
Sen Shelby
Sen Shelby
Ms. Warren
Ms. Warren
Ms. Warren
submitted by cembry90 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

My protest at MtGox Offices - 5 to 7th February 2014, Tokyo, Japan.

Day 1 – Wednesday 5 February
After repeated and failed attempts to withdraw my BTC from MtGox, I decided to jump on a plane and pay them a visit in Tokyo.
After a 16 hr. flight from Australia I went straight to their offices, arriving at around 4pm. The receptionist in the lobby told me there was no one available to meet me and I should arrange an appointment.
I refused to leave and after about 15 mins or so, the receptionist handed me the telephone to speak with a member of MtGox support. The support person referred me to their website. After a ‘lively’ conversation I told him I wasn’t gong anywhere, I didn’t travel 16 hrs to read a website I could have read at home. I would wait for Mark Karpeles to come down.
Same thing happened 15 mins later, another call, more non-sense about technical issues, and a suggestion the authorities might have to be called. I told him great, I could lodge an official complaint against MtGox while they were here.
After some hours had passed, the building cleared out and the receptionists left for the night. I was alone in the lobby. Then at approximately 8 pm, I was suddenly greeted by Gonzague Gay-Bouchery, Manager Business Development, and Mark Karpeles right hand man.
I recognized him from some news articles. I thought great, and straight away put some burning questions to him:
Q1. What is causing the withdrawal delays?
• Well, because Gox is the best known of all the exchanges, we have been under the regulatory spotlight.
• This has created problems with government agencies, and also with our banking partners.
• There are also some ongoing investigations, which we cannot talk about.
Q.2 Sure, and this would explain the FIAT delays, but what about the BTC delays; you can’t blame that on anyone else.
• The BTC withdrawal issue is a technical one, and one that has previously affected the MtGox system, our engineers are working hard to resolve the problem.
• As of now, some BTC withdrawals were going through
• For those transactions that remain broken for a week, the balance of BTC will be returned to a customers MtGox account.
Q3. A great way to buy time for a liquidity problem?
• No, it’s a technical issue.
Q4. So why are so many of the input addresses feeding into transactions in the queue coming up empty?
• This is a complex technical issue to which neither of us know the answer
Q5. Try to explain it to me.
• Its technical
Q6. There are over 40,000 BTC in the withdrawal queue, isn’t that the electronic equivalent of a bank run?
• The 40,000 figure is not correct, and the goxreport isn’t accurate.
Q.7 But I actually obtained this data from Delerium’s website who is a gox employee / contractor / associate.
• I will have to look into that.
Q8. Why doesn’t Gox prove they are solvent by transferring a large quantity of BTC between two internal wallets like Mark previously did. Then we can all check it out on the blockchain and be reassured?
• The overwhelming majority of BTC are held in cold storage. Logistically and legally in would be difficult to replicate the transfer “trick” Mark previously employed at Gox to prove their solvency.
Q9. Try me, how hard is it, what exactly is involved?
• Obviously I can’t go into too much detail for security reasons, but it would involve physically obtaining them from 6 or more locations.
Q10. Well, why don’t u do it, isn’t this a critical situation?
• It’s not that straight foreword.
Q11. You do realize no-one believes the technical excuses for the delay in BTC?
• Mt Gox has the coins, it is a technical issue and we need people to be patient.
Q12. What is you view on the poll recently published by Coindesk on Mt Gox?
• Coindesk have a vendetta against MtGox.
Q13. But they one of the most trusted sources of news in the Bitcoin community.
• Some people have it out for Mt Gox.
Q14. How do you explain the vastly different prices that appear on Gox compared with other exchanges? It recently went to 25%.
• Some traders were responsible for the manufacturing the differential in an attempt to financially benefit from arbitrage.
Q15. But people exploiting the arbitrage opportunity would actually reduce the price differential, not widen it.
[I can’t recall receiving a response to this particular point]
Q16. Is MtGox manipulating the price by directly purchasing Bitcoins on their own exchange?
• No, MtGox is not permitted to do this.
[coincidently, almost immediately after this meeting the price on MtGox tanked]
Q17. People have a lot of money tied up in your exchange, and they don’t believe your excuses. All the evidence suggests something more serious going on at gox. You are playing with people’s lives here.
• All the coins are safe; this is merely a technical issue.
When I left the office that night, I wanted to believe that everything was indeed fine, and these were indeed some temporary technical glitches, but this view was somewhat influenced by the fact I still have BTC on their exchange. All the evidence appears to suggest something more serious.
For the record, I gave Gonzague an advance copy of this transcript and offered him the opportunity to have any of his answers amended if he felt I misrepresented him in any way. A member of his support team replied by stating he did not have any comment on my version of the conversation.
Day 2 – Thursday 6 February 2014
I arrived at MtGox early, approximately 8am, and stood outside with a sign reading “MtGox, where has my money gone”. I got some curious looks, and a lot of questions from passersby about my protest.
Then at approximately 9.20 am, Mark Karpeles himself came along carrying a large, and very fancy coffee in his hand that could have passed as a dessert. I immediately confronted him and told him we needed a chat. So he stopped to hear me out.
I told him he was playing with people’s lives, and some people stood to lose their entire savings. Like Gonzague told me the night before, he mentioned technical issues, and that he would look into my case.
Then 20mins later at around 9.40am Gonzague arrived. “Good news” he said, we have sorted out your account, go and check it online. After I got Wi-Fi connection back the hotel I discovered my failed BTC withdrawal transactions had been cancelled and all my BTC were put back in the one place in the world I didn’t want them: The MtGox website. Back to joining the queue of 40,000 other BTCs.
I think this was some sort of ironic joke. I quickly tried to withdraw them again; but surprise, surprise, stuck again.
By late evening, the majority of the other workers in the MtGox building had heard of my protest and were bringing me out sandwiches and beer, and inviting me to lunch. As it turns out, Japan is probably one of the better countries in the world to protest. Everyone is so friendly; I can see why the Goxies choose to set up shop here.
As the evening drew on, it looked like I would have do a late one to catch Mark again on the way out. However, at around 7.30pm, I was approached by a law professor from a local university who has written widely on bitcoin legal issues. He was on his way to a bitcoin “meet-up” and asked me to come along to tell my story to the other bitcoin enthusiasts. I was reluctant to leave the protest but was interested in what other Tokyo resident’s thought of MtGox.
When I arrived, everyone was very interested in hearing my story. There was a general consensus amongst the participants that MtGox was finished as an exchange. They acknowledged that MtGox had played an important role in propelling Bitcoin to what it is today, but its decline and ultimate closure was inevitable.
However, there was some divergent views on the reason for this, most people, including myself are of the view that bad business decisions and incompetence were primarily to blame, while others held the view that government restriction, and secret investigations were hampering MtGox’s ability to function efficiently. Who knows what the truth is, maybe it is a bit of both.
At the end of the day 2, there was a very worrying development, the data feed for the goxreport, and delerium’s MtGox transaction failure website were cut. Perhaps a final act of MtGox’s desperation to hide the truth.
Day 3 – Friday 7 February
I started my protest a little later today in the knowledge that most of the Goxies don’t start work until after 9am. Then there was an unexpected twist; another person showed up looking for Mark. He was an emissary of an early adopter and well known member of the bitcoin community, and was there to collect an eye watering amount of money.
My emotions were mixed on seeing this person; on one hand I was glad to see another protester to fight the good cause. On the other hand, my heart sank in the knowledge that if Mark isn’t paying off his old friends in the bitcoin community then what chance do small fry like me have?
As the emissary and I chatted, Mark Karpeles arrived, and we both confronted him, the conversation went on for some time and most of it conducted in French which I had trouble understanding. However I did mange to record the whole thing on video.
The episode only came to a halt when Gonzague appeared in the lobby and rescued Mark. Very soon after this point, MtGox released a statement announcing that all BTC withdrawals were suspended.
In conclusion, I think i just witnessed MtGox die today. I didn’t get my bitcoin, but glad I came and tried.
submitted by CoinSearcher to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

After four months, I have some observations and lingering questions about bitcoins

I decided to put some money into bitcoins back in December (great price!) and since then have been buying small batches. I have a few observations about what I've learned:
There's no right time to buy
Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating crazily since I first bought in, and it probably wont stop for awhile. If you're thinking of buying in for the first time but want to wait, I'd suggest just go ahead and buy in now. There wont be a magic moment to buy in (unless you keep a sharp eye out for a quick drop) and the price will keep changing. At this rate, it will probably only go up, so you might as well get off the fence and make a decision. I wish I did back in November!
Buying bitcoins is annoying
People write all the time about how easy it is to buy bitcoins. I felt comfortable investing in bitcoins because of all those kinds of statements. But I'll go ahead and say it's misleading to say buying bitcoins is easy. Rather, it's easy to buy some kinds of bitcoins- and usually at a higher price. Here are the ways I know for buying bitcoins (note, I'm in the US):
Bitcoin transfers are not instantaneous
This was something that really caught me off guard at first. Here is this new type of money that is totally digital, so it should very fast to move around. And nearly everyone claims that it is. In my experience, however, that's not true at all. I've had simple transfers of btc that linger for hours. I have no idea where they go or why certain transfers take so long, but they just do. Eventually, everything shows up, but it's very disconcerting not knowing where your digital currency is in cyberspace. Services like coinbase highlight even more the non-instantaneous nature of bitcoins. If you stick to a major exchange like mtgox, you can expect much faster transfers, but don't panic if something takes longer than a few seconds, minutes, hours etc.
Real-time bitcoin data is not always available
This is important and has a significant impact on trading. There are several sites that track btc prices in close to real-time, but often there are significant lags. This is mainly due to mtgox. The real bitcoin trading currently occurs at mtgox and the market rate is pegged to mtgox. So any lapse in data or service that occurs at mtgox ripples through the other services relying on mtgox market rates. Why does that matter? If the price of btc starts dropping by a few dollars every few minutes, and then suddenly there is no longer real-time trading data, lots of people panic and start selling. The price drops even more. It's an artificial bubble popping of sorts. While btc is decentralized, unfortunately market rates/data is still pretty centralized. And that means that information can go offline...
There's a lot about bitcoins that may go unknown
I find, for most people, bitcoins are understandable up until a certain point. When me and my buddies discuss bitcoins, inevitably we get to the question: but what are bitcoins? While we all know they're rooted in mathematical equations in "blocks," none of us understands what that means. Maybe that doesn't matter, but for some people, it will be a hard sell if you want inspire confidence in this new currency. Here's some lingering questions I still have about bitcoins, even after four months of intensive use and familiarity:
Anyways, those are just some thoughts I've had recently and felt like sharing. Here's a tldr:
TL;DR: With bitcoins, (1) first time investor? there's no right time to buy, just jump in; (2) buying bitcoins can be very annoying and overly-costly; (3) bitcoin transfers are not always instantaneous; (4) bitcoin market data is mostly centralized and not always available; (5) there are bitcoin complexities and unknowns outside the grasp of most laypeople.
edit: thanks for the informative and helpful responses!
[edit: format]
submitted by name_ to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Lower prices remove Finite supply faster.

The obvious thing everyone overlooks is. It's easier to move bitcoin into cold wallets at lower price. If the price weakness is do to network issues (which it's not obviously) that is another story but in this environment?
We can eat twice the supply at $6k than $12k removing most of what we take into long term mode with individual hodlrs and those with plans on trading btc for products with other holders. in 23 months we will be getting help from the halving which will 8x the price as usual.
Another example is the MTgox whale out there with 90k worth of btc and a few other big dumper scenarios. So why pay them double?
We spend the next year working on apps, adoption and education and things will be even more interesting than 2017. Instead of moaning about prices turn your focus into integrating this tech into our lives. Perhaps we should work on a trade board like an ebay but hodlrs only! Just a thought. Hodlr trading club?
submitted by vroomDotClub to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Hodl Hodl launches new project called "Predictions" on TESTNET

From the related blog post (
Today we’re officially announcing our project “Predictions by Hodl Hodl” which is now available on TESTNET —
In this blog post we want to give instructions, explain how everything works, and give you some use-cases for our new project.
Let’s get everything in order.
Predictions is a project by Hodl Hodl that is a marketplace where you can go and create a contract with someone else, where the conditions of the payout depend on the outcome of a certain event. The payouts are only made in Bitcoin.
Let’s say you want to predict that the price of Bitcoin will be above $15,000 by July 2019. The other party may disagree with you. The condition of the contract states that each one of you locks 1 Bitcoin into escrow and whoever turns out to be correct in the prediction of the price of Bitcoin gets 2 bitcoins in July.
We provide you with a solution to make this possible:
An offer desk
Simply put, it’s a place where you can find other users’ predictions and create your own;
Escrow solution
For each contract we generate two multisig addresses, where the funds are being stored safely during the prediction contract, with two out of three keys needed for release.
Resolving disputes
In case of a disagreement between the two parties on the prediction contract’s outcome, Hodl Hodl intervenes and resolves the dispute.
Use cases
The use case described above is the simplest one. Here are just a few more examples from an infinite number of options:
Stock prices
You can buy public company shares, and try predicting the price of that stock. Choose any public company, e.g. Google, and predict the price of its shares by, for example, the end of 2019.
Oil price
If you’re long on renewable energy, you would probably expect the price of oil to fall at some point — predict when exactly.
Payouts to creditors of MtGox
If you’re a MtGox creditor (a Bitcoin exchange that was hacked and went bankrupt back in 2014) and awaiting the payout, you might be interested in creating a contract that says “creditors of MtGox will not be paid anything in 2019” even though your expectation is that they will be. Thus, if you get paid by MtGox, you receive bitcoins from them, but lose the ones you locked in your contract. If you don’t get paid by MtGox, you’d get some of the bitcoins that will be sort of a compensation for a longer wait period.
The outcome of the Champions League final
You can make the final more exciting by creating a prediction of who gets to be the Champions League winner in 2019.
Peter McCormack VS Craig Wright
If you follow these kinds of events and want to support either side, make a prediction of who wins the trial, or whether it goes to trial at all.
Offer creation
To make a prediction offer, simply press the “Add offer” button on the front page of the website, or on “My offers” page.
When creating offers, you have to describe the event, the outcome you predict, how many bitcoins you would like to lock in escrow and how much your counterparty should lock in escrow.
We made the process as simple as possible, and creating offers won’t take much of your time.
Please note:
Every offer is pre-moderated by Hodl Hodl admins Your offer should not describe anything illegal You should be as specific and unambiguous as possible when describing the event outcome
Contract workflow
When you create an offer and someone accepts it, or you accept an existing offer, a contract is created.
Let’s analyze this step by step.
1) Contract is created;
Right after the contract is created, Hodl Hodl generates two unique escrow addresses.
It’s worth mentioning:
We support native Bech32 SegWit addresses. This means you can send and receive the funds from escrow to Bech32 addresses when the contract is completed
We generate P2SH-P2WSH SegWit multisig escrow addresses. For every contract we generate multisig addresses in SegWit format.
2) Both parties make deposits;
Both offeror and acceptor make deposits to the escrow addresses we present them with, sending funds from their own Bitcoin wallets.
3) Waiting for the event to take place;
When both counterparties have sent bitcoins to the escrow addresses and transactions are confirmed, we inform users that everything is alright, and we’re waiting for the event to take place.
4) Acknowledging the contract outcome;
Once the event has happened, we ask both parties to decide who was right and who was wrong regarding the prediction made.
Both parties are given 3 days to acknowledge this. If there’s a disagreement between them or one party doesn’t make the decision as to the outcome of the contract within 3 days, a dispute is started.
It’s also possible for both parties to declare a draw — in this case, both parties are able to refund the funds they’ve previously locked in escrow.
5) Prediction contract is now complete!
If the parties agreed on the contract outcome, the party that predicted the outcome correctly can release all locked funds from the escrow to their own Bitcoin wallet: both the funds the party itself locked and the funds that the counterparty locked.
That’s it, the workflow is as simple as that.
Dispute case
It’s worth asking, what exactly happens in case of a disagreement between the two parties in a prediction contract?
Say we have a dispute in which case Hodl Hodl intervenes and resolves the dispute by:
Administrator has the following options: either resolve the dispute in favor of one of the counterparties, or to recognize a draw.
We do not expect this scenario to be difficult or waste our resources, because every offer is pre-moderated and we apply strict rules for offer creation.
That’s it
A new milestone begins in our company’s development, we would appreciate support from your side: please share this news, send us suggestions and bugreports about this project, and be sure you’ll see more exciting things to come very soon.
Predictions on MAINNET
The mainnet version is going live in June 2019, follow our news to stay informed!
submitted by artur97 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Diversifying your 2018 investment portfolio with high risk and low risk coins

After months of thorough research I put together the best portfolio in crypto in my opinion. The portfolio is divided into high risk, high return (100x) bets, medium risk medium return (10x) and low risk, low return (3x-10x).
If you want to put $30k into crypto, here is what I recommend to get the best outcome.

1. $10k into high risk high return coins XSPEC, SUMO, ECC, ODN, BNTY, SNOV.

XSPEC and SUMO are 2 are privacy coins that are currently at a tiny market cap of $9M and $4M. 3 months ago, when Bitcoin was at its All-time-high, their market caps were at $113M and $32M respectively. In case, Bitcoin goes up to its ATH of $20,000 again, those 2 coins will go back to their ATH again, too. The thing is, altcoins behave the same as Bitcoin, only that they move at a much higher percentage than the big one, Bitcoin. For example, if Bitcoin goes up 30%, all small altcoins with a market cap under $10M, such as XSPEC, will go up by around 90%.
Privacy coins such as Monero are one of the most sought after cryptocurrencies currently and experts expect a big rise of privacy coins 2018. XSPEC and SUMO are very similar in technology to Monero, maybe even superior though their market cap is 100 times less, since they are less than 1 year old.
ODN, BNTY and SNOV are the small market cap coins with the biggest expected commercial use of the blockchain as a messenger (ODN), Bug-Bounty platform (BNTY), lead-generation (SNOV) and decentralized file storage (ECC). There already exists a file storage coin Siacoin at 20x the market cap of ECC without much reason for the big gap due to ECC's solid technology.
There are a also a few more very small cap coins that I considered, such as DNA in the medical field, and ELIX, though I found their potential less convincing than that of the above mentioned cryptocurrencies.

2. $15k into medium risk medium return (10x) coins, COSS, POE, PRL, DBC, ENJ.

COSS is the platform coin of the COSS crypto exchange. It is an exchange like Binance, but it is seen as one of the best small and innovative exchanges that currently exist. They will also release their mainnet in a few weeks, which will give them another boost.
DBC is one of the few cryptos that make use of artificial intelligence. They have a very strong team and are one of the few cryptos in the AI space.
ENJ, this is probably the coin with the most real-world usage of all cryptos. There are already a few gaming coins out there, such as FUN and MobileGo, however, ENJ is one of the few that real numbers behind them.
With more than 18 million users and 250,000 gaming-based communities, **Enjin* is among the world’s largest social gaming platforms. Recently, Enjin launched its cryptocurrency—Enjin coin—an Ethereum-based token to be used on a platform that allows for the development, distribution, organization, and trading of virtual goods.
As of 2 weeks ago, they closed a partnerships with one of the biggest games, Minecraft and will be used as a currency within Minecraft.
POE is a decentralized platform that allows publishers to license, identify, and monetize digital content such as blog posts, news articles, YouTube videos, audio/music, e-books and more. Here is a very good article about them.
PRL is a very interesting one. It gives website owners the ability to generate revenue from their visitors without having to feature pushy advertising by storing encrypted data, but by mining PRL.

3. $5K into low risk, low return (3x-10x) coins Bitcoin, Ether, Nano, VEN, IOTA, BNB.

Ok let's get to the juggernauts. If you are rather conservative, Bitcoin and Ethereum will make you a good profit in the coming years, maybe even 10x if you're lucky. However, if Bitcoin goes 10x, all smaller altcoins go 100x, so it is worth diversifying a little.
The thing is, Bitcoin's technology is very outdated. It cannot handle more than 20 transactions per second, it uses as much energy as a small country and with increased usage their fees will skyrocket again. This is the problem of 1st generation blockchains. Bitcoin cash has the same problem and while they can handle double as many transactions as Bitcoin due to their block size being twice as big, it's only a drop in the ocean, since they need to be able to handle 1000x as many transactions as now if they want to be used as a payment processor.
A good comparison to get an idea for transaction volume is VISA, which handles a couple of thousand transactions per second and is able to handle 60,000 transactions /second at peak times. A crypto payment processor needs to be as good as that. However, 60,000 transactions (tx)/second isn’t even a good benchmark. It’s the same as comparing the number of faxes sent with the number of emails sent. If you want to surpass old technology, you should go for 100x the amount of usage. More on that in the paragraph about IOTA.
I personally won't put anything in Bitcoin and Ether, because they are rather outdated cryptocurrencies now and they can only grow another 10x maximum within the next year or 2, while there are many other coins that can grow 100x or more within the same time frame.
Now we have VeChain, a supply chain cryptotechnology. VeChain is already very mature and it is the most popular and loved altcoin next to Nano. It is a safe bet.
Let’s get to IOTA. They have built a very exciting new technology. They are not using a blockchain, but a Tangle. It is a 3rd generation blockchain that has zero fees and instant transaction times. IOTA’s real world application is in IoT, Internet of Things. They are using their tangle to connect to and make transactions between millions of small devices, be it temperature regulator, heating, car, lights. Now you can see why a high transaction volume is so important, because these devices communicate multiple times every second with one another through these transactions. It is estimated that in 10 years time, 80 billion IoT devices will exist worldwide, which probably create 80 billion tx/second or more. IOTA is designed to do exactly that. Bitcoin can only do 10 tx/second. Currently, 8 billion IoT devices are connected to the internet.
However, IOTA has not been stress tested at this volume. It is not yet clear that transactions will remain instant at this volume, nor is it clear if the Internet of Things will ever take off. Maybe there will only be 500 million Internet of Things devices ever, this is not sure. However, IOTA has the biggest potential for me.
Let’s get to BNB. BNB has the same purpose as COSS. It is used on the Binance exchange to reduce your trading fees. That means, the value of BNB rises and falls with the success of Binance and Binance is now the second largest, most loved exchange. They currently process 10% of all crypto trades. Among the sea of scammy and unprofessional exchanges, Binance stands out as very professional, intelligent, fair, with excellent customer service. They will also soon release the first decentralized CryptoCurrency exchange in a month. I believe BNB will be among the top 10 cryptocurrencies within 1 year.
Let’s get to the final one Nano. It is my personal overall favourite. It is what Bitcoin always wanted to be, only a lot better. While Bitcoin is still struggling with high energy use, extremely low transaction volume and high fees upon increased usage, Nano has all that figured out already. Similar to IOTA, they are also a 3rd generation blockchain technology. They have zero fees, instant transactions and one millionth the energy usage of Bitcoin. Furthermore, they have been proven to work flawlessly while maintaining a 1000 tx/second volume. They are a payment processor.
Furthermore, it looks like Nano could replace BCH as a trading pair soon, since BCH trading pairs get little traffic, KuCoin has removed BCH trading pairs yesterday and there is already an exchange with that trades all of his currencies with Nano, called Nanex.
All in all, NANO and IOTA are on par for me while IOTA has more potential but also more risk, since it still has some security issues that haven’t been ironed out yet and they are somewhat reliant on the success of the Internet of Things. However, if the internet of things, really permeates our lives as described above, IOTA will replace Bitcoin and become the one most used cryptocurrency. Here is an excellent article about IOTA vs. Nano


Having said all this, if you believe that Bitcoin has now reached its full potential already and will never ever be worth more than now, don't invest in crypto anymore.
If you think that Bitcoin can potentially go to $20k again or to $40k or that cryptocurrencies will replace FIAT in 5 years, then you can look at 10x returns.
Many people fall victim to the cognitive bias of thinking Bitcoin is too risky, while the maximum risk is losing everything they invested, which can be $2,000. Sure, it is annoying to lose $2,000, but I put the possibility of Bitcoin never going to more than $7,500 at maybe 1%, while I put the likelhood of it going up to $20,000 or $30,000 at 60%. So, the odds are in your favor.
All in all, it's a large upside to a small downside. If you are very sceptical of Bitcoin, but you are looking to diversify your portfolio, $2,000 is a sane investment amount that yes, is annoying to lose, but won't change your life. If Bitcoin goes up again significantly, you will simply make a large amount of money. Small downside, large upside.
If you already have a significant amount of money in crypto, it's better to shift away from Bitcoin. Yes, you will probably make a 2x to 3x on Bitcoin as well, but you can make 50x from the best altcoins in the same time.
EDIT: I didn't include
There are several good coins in the top 100 still, Waves, Ziliqa, WTC, PIVX, Bat, REQ, ENG, SKY, LINK, though all of the high risk coins I mentioned do the same or have a bigger or equal potential as them 20x smaller market cap.
These top 100 coins aren't 20x better than the high risk coins, even if they were 5x times better, it would be better to invest in the high risk coins, because you would still make 4x more profit.
That's why the medium risk coins are only starting at number 133, 140 and 202. This makes them are undervalued for being the best utility coins currently.
submitted by galan77 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Anyone else wonder if all the new shops accepting bitcoin cause a lot of bitcoin selling pressure?

submitted by reddbullish to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

The simplest explanation is usually the right one (Occam's Razor): "Willy" was not a conspiracy. It was exactly what Mark Karpeles said it was: a bot/API for high value clients.

I'm a little surprised that so many people are jumping straight to conspiracy theories in the last 48 hours following the "Willy Report". It especially surprises me because Willy follows the exact same patterns that so many people here have theorized would be done by "whales".
Imagine you are a high value trader or company. You want to enter bitcoin or increase your position. Do you really think you would simply open up a regular trading account on MtGox, put millions of dollars into your web account, and start making million dollar trades? Absolutely no way. I've worked for two large Wall Street banks, and I can tell you flat out that high value clients have access to products and services that "normal" people do not. High value clients have dedicated staff to service them, they get taken out to dinners and events, they have exceptions done for them, they simply operate outside of the normal world that you and I live in.
Willy didn't pay fees or fiat because it operated outside the purview of what a normal trader would have to do. High value clients would have direct relationships with MtGox, and would likely have special fee structure in place that they would pay to MtGox separately and at a different time than trades. Willy didn't back up trades with fiat because fiat was likely wired to MtGox separately, in bulk.
Willy only bought because these high value clients weren't looking to really "trade". They were looking to enter the market, and likely couldn't find enough early adopters off-market to facilitate their needs. So, they had to go on-market. Second Market has publicly stated that they started having issues finding off-market individuals to buy from. What then? Just stop buying? Absolutely not. They instead needed to start coming on-market. However, you can't simply start making buy orders for several millions dollars. So instead, MtGox would offer an automated API that was directly connected to their servers (just like Mark said) and could make small buys at frequent intervals so as to try to not influence the market too much and cause the price to go skyrocketing.
Willy had "??" in data fields because Willy likely facilitated several different clients at once. There is no grand conspiracy there.
Again, I'm surprised that people aren't coming to these simple conclusions, especially since this is exactly how all of us have assumed "whales" work. What we're seeing in Willy is exactly what we expected to see in whales.
Also, does anyone really think that Willy, a bot that was a small percentage of MtGox's volume, could really single-handedly incite an entire bubble when there were at least 2 or 3 other similarly sized exchanges? The truth is that Willy was just one form of high value clients entering the market on one exchange. Other exchanges likely have their own forms of "Willies" that contributed to the bubble just like it did on MtGox. And trust me, those "Willies" are no more conspiratorial than this MtGox Willy is.
submitted by watabtme to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

r/bitcoin recap - July 2017

Hi Bitcoiners!
I’m back with the seventh monthly Bitcoin news recap. Last month's post got very little love, and I don't expect much more success with everyone focussing on August 1st, but here it is nonetheless. In my eyes definitely one of the most eventful months in Bitcoin's history, absolutely unreal how much happened:
To name a few.
For those unfamiliar with the monthly recap, each day I pick out the most popularelevant/interesting stories in bitcoin and save them. At the end of the month I release them in one batch, to give you a quick (but not necessarily the best) overview of what happened in bitcoin over the past month.
You can see recaps of the previous months on
If you're on mobile and can't see the links below, check the web version.
A recap of Bitcoin in July 2017
No biggie right? And you thought SegWit was the only thing going on!
submitted by SamWouters to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Price CRASH! Ethereum Analysis! MT Gox Settlement!? Risk Management Tutorial! Bitcoin TA Bitcoin Price Mt Gox Site Disappears Bitcoin mtgox $600 USD / 1 BTC price breakthrough and 'flash crash' 12hr elapsed Nov 17-18 2013 MtGox Bitcoins to BTC Bitcoins in 50 seconds MtGox Bitcoin Price-Manipulation 2013-06-02

Live cryptocurrency prices, market cap, volume, charts and cryptocurrency news. Track your favorite coins. Sort by price, volume, market cap and supply. Skip to content . Gainers (24H) Losers (24H) Change (1H, 24H, 7D, 30D) Cryptocurrency News; Buy Cryptocurrency; Live Cryptocurrency Prices. Cryptocurrencies: 5,974. Markets: 542. Marketcap: $ 405.04 B. 24h Vol: $ 43.74 B. BTC Dominance: 60.07% ... Bitcoin USD price, real-time (live) charts, bitcoin news and videos. Learn about BTC value, bitcoin cryptocurrency, crypto trading, and more. Mtgox Bitcoin Price Bitcoin Tracker App Bitcoin Mining Worth It 2017 Mtgox Bitcoin Price The Bitcoin Entanglement Tv Maze Bitcoin Transaction Not Being Confirmed ... Those two numbers are AND. They have taken 275k BTC from buyers and $17.7M from sellers. Here's the data in visual format:... So what if Mt.Gox isn't really the de facto Bitcoin exchange anymore? That isn't stopping traders on the Japan-based exchange from pricing the digital

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Bitcoin Price CRASH! Ethereum Analysis! MT Gox Settlement!? Risk Management Tutorial! Bitcoin TA

Break happens at about 3 seconds in, note the flash crash dropping to $540 support floor around :10 and quickly rebounding within 5 hours. MtGox Bitcoins To BTC Bitcoins BITCOIN PRICE , BITCOIN FUTURE in doubt What is NAMECOIN BITCOIN'S First Fork In this video Jason talks about how to get money from Dwolla to MtGox. He also shows you how to buy bitcoins at current exchange price. This is the second step in buying bitcoins. What is BitCoin ... Bitcoin Price Mt Gox Site Disappears BITCOIN PRICE , BITCOIN FUTURE in doubt What is NAMECOIN BITCOIN'S First Fork http://youtu.b... Not Forex, only crypto trading. Live Trading. #Bitcoin #BitcoinPrice #Crypto this might be the best bitcoin news ETH News with the best bitcoin price analysis on youtube, don't question it. If you ...